Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 88977.738298 93870.076706 98761.835776 104016.682807 109498.449329 115044.898882 121077.588966
2025-11-23 80503.691855 87936.272244 95575.512971 104003.873706 113031.759844 122401.420530 132850.613585
2025-11-30 75516.932183 84762.849414 94471.483393 105405.319800 117355.009583 129997.028430 144361.309038
2025-12-07 71425.417634 82023.703582 93353.499270 106332.422150 120754.090655 136251.856391 154129.376334
2025-12-14 67491.402576 79094.796249 91697.107412 106351.458921 122871.662543 140866.731778 161897.152814
2025-12-21 64314.804847 76764.949509 90480.851926 106644.831200 125102.057009 145449.010253 169501.515811
2025-12-28 62325.601190 75625.663320 90466.101320 108165.001666 128605.931448 151378.609030 178570.128508
2026-01-04 60336.593375 74353.390512 90181.653254 109269.428092 131547.938653 156610.558108 186813.600758
2026-01-11 58322.188871 72936.597571 89627.945993 109968.702513 133945.941196 161166.361334 194252.943077
2026-01-18 56212.017728 71302.447625 88726.481134 110174.311548 135696.306473 164921.969559 200735.837802
2026-01-25 54321.897963 69845.300232 87956.466561 110463.346968 137485.380880 168681.428654 207202.253625
2026-02-01 52439.732378 68318.424201 87031.439336 110500.686339 138920.425364 171986.379454 213113.942163
2026-02-08 51248.168511 67607.192721 87071.246507 111695.145497 141754.445419 176984.296154 221102.180810
2026-02-15 49510.680313 66156.644694 86155.960278 111681.059856 143095.814170 180186.479866 226953.266104
2026-02-22 48631.757131 65742.916674 86483.558862 113166.507591 146248.432266 185566.514825 235445.974122
2026-03-01 47568.008658 65051.442813 86429.396515 114149.113671 148765.470599 190174.526455 243021.527831
2026-03-08 46111.530363 63806.631360 85636.802432 114169.284951 150061.631432 193278.189599 248764.270484
2026-03-15 44870.587801 62797.299248 85103.032422 114480.207670 151693.307344 196779.102370 254995.884661
2026-03-22 44286.823999 62619.555359 85607.277654 116091.182144 154948.270428 202288.128323 263727.260319
2026-03-29 43541.067156 62200.648180 85779.356346 117261.431234 157640.632766 207106.315195 271627.975859
2026-04-05 42647.311331 61555.338444 85633.335657 118002.318122 159776.442558 211231.434785 278683.186110
2026-04-12 41574.191165 60637.032040 85102.710534 118220.153243 161226.672429 214490.906635 284663.481125
2026-04-19 40586.552999 59804.449264 84657.938992 118526.368392 162773.959225 217866.645341 290798.258924